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期刊简介

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《安全权衡》（Security Studies）收录出书创新性的学术稿件——无论是表面权衡、实行教化共享也曾两者兼容并包。安全权衡包含平方的议题，从核扩散、核威慑、军民关系、计谋文化、种族突破、流行病与国度安全、民主政事、社交决议到定性与多范例权衡的发展。2024年该期刊影响因子为2.464。

本期目次

1

军事服从与海战

Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare

2

核不使用的盲点：磨练

Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse

3

转换政府、等闲与干戈：第二次卡拉巴赫干戈的案例

人与动物

Revolutionary Governments， Recklessness， and War: The Case of the Second Karabakh War

4

恫吓构建与威慑果真度

Threat Construction and Coercive Credibility

5反差 眼镜

逃离瘫痪：应酬不合称核升级的策略

Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation

内容摘录

军事服从与海战

题目：Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare

作家：Stephen Biddle，哥伦比亚大学海外与宇宙事务教学、社交关系委员会国防政策兼职高档权衡员。John Severini，约翰-塞韦里尼当今是乔治敦大学政府学博士生。

摘录：军事后果促进了政事学文件的增长。可是，这些著述绝大无边侧重于大陆干戈。中国的崛起突显了海战。文件的中枢论断是否适用于海战？咱们通过一个对于 1649 年至 1988 年间国度间水面海战的新数据集来比较海战和陆战花样，从而探讨这一问题。咱们发现，海上和陆地的军事环境判然不同，这使得海战收尾对物资愈加敏锐，愈加速速，也愈加单方面，因此两者存在骨子分离。可是，在物资与非物资的互相作用方面也有要紧的不异之处。这些特色对改日东亚反介入/区域拒止（A2/AD）干戈的政策、舟师资源分派中手段和物资干预的均衡以及军事服从权衡王人有要紧影响。

Military effectiveness created a growth in political science literature. However， this work focused overwhelmingly on continental warfare. China’s rise highlights naval warfare. Do the central findings of the literature hold for war at sea? We explore this question by comparing naval and land combat patterns via a new dataset on interstate surface naval battles fought between 1649 and 1988. We find essential differences deriving from the contrasting nature of the sea and land as military environments， which have made naval outcomes more sensitive to materiel， quicker， and more one-sided. There are， however， also important similarities involving material–nonmaterial interactions. These features pose important implications for policy on future anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) warfare in East Asia， the balance of investment in skill and materiel in naval resource allocation， and research on military effectiveness.

核不使用的盲点：磨练

题目：Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse

作家：Ruoyu Li， 约翰霍普金斯大学政事学系。

摘录：太平洋激进派声称核磨练即是核使用，这对海外关系（IR）学科中的核不使用倡导提议了挑战。在应酬这一挑战的同期，本文还揭示了干系核磨练的学科盲点，即核磨练与核使用不符。我合计，斯科特·萨根（Scott Sagan）和肯尼斯·华尔兹（Kenneth N. Waltz）对于核威慑的辩白以及妮娜·坦南瓦尔德（Nina Tannenwald）的核禁忌框架所体现的对于不使用核兵器的海外关系盘问是殖民学问分娩的一部分，这种学问分娩含糊了隶属国东说念主民的政事能动性和东说念主性。本文以好意思国在马绍尔群岛进行的核兵器磨练（1946-58 年）为例，对核磨练进行了后殖民方针的从头施展，从而论证了核磨练是核使用的一种面孔，颠倒是核兵器的殖民使用。

Pacific activists’ proclamation that nuclear testing is nuclear use poses a challenge to the notion of nuclear nonuse in the discipline of International Relations (IR). While addressing such a challenge， this article reveals a disciplinary blind spot regarding nuclear testing that disqualifies testing from nuclear use. I argue that IR discussions of nuclear nonuse—exemplified by Scott Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz’s debates on nuclear deterrence and Nina Tannenwald’s nuclear taboo framework—are part of the colonial knowledge production that dismisses the political agency and humanity of colonized people. This article then argues that nuclear testing is a form of nuclear use， specifically， the colonial use of nuclear weapons， by developing a postcolonial reinterpretation of nuclear testing in the case of US nuclear weapon tests in the Marshall Islands (1946–58).

转换政府、等闲与干戈：第二次卡拉巴赫干戈的案例

题目：Revolutionary Governments， Recklessness， and War: The Case of the Second Karabakh War

作家：Arman Grigoryan，利哈伊大学海外关系系副教学。

摘录：转换政事环境的特色是逆向采选的压力。它进步了最激进、最易发生突破、最乐于冒险的类型，而这些东说念主又培育进度低，缺少在朝教化。他们是浅薄的反唯物方针者，合计惟有付出宽裕的勤奋和结实，实验就不错按照他们的意愿来改换。转换者领有广大的理念念和救世霸术，频繁不会容忍协谐和还价还价。对他们来说，要已矣这些念念法，任何代价王人不算太高。当转换者承袭一个与其他国度发生突破的国度时，这些倾向很可能也会影响他们对突破的处分，并可能带来熬煎性的后果。亚好意思尼亚转换政府的社交政策导致了 2020 年第二次卡拉巴赫干戈和亚好意思尼亚方面的熬煎性失败。

Revolutionary politics is an environment characterized by pressures for adverse selection. It elevates the most radical， conflict-prone， risk happy types， who in addition are poorly educated and inexperienced in government. They are vulgar anti-materialists who think reality can be bent to their will with sufficient effort and perseverance. Revolutionaries are possessed with grandiose ideas and salvation projects， which typically do not tolerate compromise and bargaining. Nor any cost seems too high to them for the realization of such ideas. When revolutionaries take over in a country that has a conflict with another state， these propensities are likely to affect their management of the conflict as well with potentially catastrophic consequences. The argument is illustrated with the diplomacy of Armenia’s revolutionary government， which led to the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and the Armenian side’s catastrophic defeat.

恫吓构建与强制果真度

题目：Threat Construction and Coercive Credibility

作家：Danielle L. Lupton， 科尔盖特大学政事学副教学。

摘录：在海外危境中，活动体奈何发出果真的恫吓？传统的学术权衡侧重于恫吓的布景奈何影响果真度，而本文则斟酌恫吓自身的构建奈何影响果真度。更具体地说，本文引入了 "恫吓原理 "这一倡导，并从表面上分析了率领者在传达恫吓时所采选的解释是奈何影响其强制性果真度的。本权衡接管了聚首缱绻拜谒实验，以详情恫吓的具体性和严重性、公开恫吓与私东说念主恫吓以及恫吓原理对果真度感知的影响。本文发现，更精准的恫吓被合计更果真，而接管声誉原理的恫吓果真度较低。有极少许根据标明，公开或私行愿出恫吓会影响果真度。本文还发现，受众是国内也曾海外，以及危境诱因的严重进度王人会影响东说念主们对果真度的看法。本权衡进一步加深了咱们对塑造强制性果真度的要素以及决议者如安在海外危境中最灵验地传达其开心的清爽。

How do actors issue credible threats during international crises? While scholarship has traditionally focused on how the context of threats influences credibility， this paper considers how the construction of the threat itself affects credibility. More specifically， this paper introduces the concept of threat justification and theorize how the choice of explanation a leader uses in communicating her threats can influence her coercive credibility. This study employs a conjoint design survey experiment to identify the influence of threat specificity and severity， public versus private threats， and threat justification on perceptions of credibility. This paper finds that more precise threats are perceived as more credible， while threats employing reputational justifications are less credible. There is a minimal amount of evidence that the public versus private delivery of a threat influences credibility. This paper also finds that perceptions of credibility are influenced by whether the audience is domestic versus international and by the severity of the instigating crisis trigger. This study furthers our understanding of the factors shaping coercive credibility and how policymakers can most effectively convey their commitments during international crises.

逃离瘫痪：应酬不合称核升级的策略

题目：Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation

作家：Even Hellan Larsen， 挪威奥斯陆大学政事学系的博士权衡员。

摘录：领有核兵器的国度在与领有核兵器的敌手进行初级别的突破常常常意马心猿，因为局促引起核反击。本文将这种情况称为 "次计谋瘫痪"。核兵器国度试图解脱这种瘫痪情状的采选进行了分类：反价值刑事使命计谋通过反价值核挫折进行威慑；旧例暂停计谋通过旧例反映将进一步升级的使命转嫁给敌手，从而起到威慑作用；毁伤收尾计谋通过在核干戈中收尾毁伤的才智进行威慑；临了，唇枪舌剑计谋通过在通盘突破级别上的干戈制胜才智来进行威慑。为了解脱次计谋瘫痪，苏联和印度在转向旧例停顿计谋之前，当先依赖于反价值刑事使命。印度未能解脱瘫痪情状，因此运行寻求毁伤收尾计谋。比拟之下，好意思国则奉行唇枪舌剑的计谋，以摈斥次计谋瘫痪。

States armed with nuclear weapons are often hesitant to engage in low levels of conflict against rivals armed with nuclear weapons for fear of provoking a nuclear response. I refer to this condition as “substrategic paralysis.” I provide a typology of the options for nuclear weapon states trying to escape this paralysis. A countervalue punishment strategy deters through countervalue nuclear retaliation. A conventional pause strategy deters by shifting the burden of further escalation back onto the adversary with a conventional response. A damage limitation strategy deters through the ability to limit damage in a nuclear war. Finally， a tit-for-tat strategy discourages through a war-winning capability at all conflict levels. To escape substrategic paralysis， the Soviet Union and India initially relied on countervalue punishment before moving toward a conventional pause strategy. India’s failure to escape paralysis triggered a search for a damage limitation strategy. In contrast， the United States pursues a tit-for-tat strategy to neutralize substrategic paralysis.

编译 | 柳博文

审校 | 赖永祯

排版 | 赵兴岳

本文源于《安全权衡》2024年第3期，本文为公益共享，作事于科研教学，不代表本平台不雅点。如有任性，接待指正。

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